My personal research base on Larry Williams' timing principles, annotated with charts, ideas, and insights. I’m doing this simply because I no longer daytrade but I still want the money. Least amount of effort, maximum rewards. Sounds like I am playing the long game. Why not Dollar Cost Averaging, you ask. Why DCA, if I am looking for above average results. I am going to do what everyone (except Larry because the man actually did it), including myself thought impossible - I’m going to freakn time the market.

There is no value in simply finding the bottom, or the top. The bottom that I find could easily be higher than the current price (the moment I decide to stay out of the market). I will ride the wave when the market is in uptrend, stay out when it downtrends, and buy with everything I have at the bottom. That is not a prediction, it’s a spoiler. This is a documentation of everything happening in real time - my private research lab + publish-ready blog.

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📈 Margin Debt vs S&P500 (Top)

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4% (Top) > Odd Lot Short Sale > 10% (Bottom)

✨ Current Focus: Margin Debt vs S&P 500

Goal: Understand how surges in NYSE margin debt historically precede or align with S&P500 turning points.

▪ What Larry Said

“Margin debt often surges near market tops. The emotional commitment of leveraged traders gives clues to potential reversals.”

▪ Chart showing Correlation

FINRA US Margin Debt vs S&P500

from https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/23/margin-debt-surges-record-high-june-2025 by Jennifer Nash on 23 July 2025

Starting in 1997, a period well into the long-running bull market that began in 1982 and nearing the tech bubble, we can observe some interesting patterns:

• Late 1999 - March 2000: Margin debt experienced a dramatic increase, peaking in March 2000. This coincided with an interim daily high for the S&P 500, although the market's highest monthly close for that year occurred later in August.
• 2006 - July 2007: Another significant surge in margin debt began in 2006, reaching its peak in July 2007, just three months before the S&P 500 reached its peak.
• February 2009: Following the financial crisis, margin debt hit a low point in February 2009, the same month the stock market bottomed out. Subsequently, margin debt began another substantial period of growth.
• Post-COVID Pandemic (October 2021 - December 2022): We saw a similar pattern after the initial COVID-19 pandemic. Margin debt soared to an all-time high in October 2021, just two months before the S&P 500 reached its peak in December 2021. The market then bottomed in September 2022, and margin debt followed suit, reaching its most recent low in December 2022.